According to a recent Global InfoAnalytics poll, vice president Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is continuing to trail behind John Dramani Mahama (JDM), the leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), as the elections in December 2024 approach.

According to the survey, Bawumia trails Mahama with 37.3% of devoted voters, while Mahama has 51.1% of them.
The combined share of independent candidates is 1.3%, with Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) accounting for 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively.

Polling Report-October 2024-FINAL

Mahama maintains his lead in an unweighted likely voters’ model, receiving 49.3% of the vote versus Bawumia’s 35.9%.
The survey also reveals a concerning pattern of voter indifference within the NPP, with 16% of prospective voters identifying as ruling party supporters compared to 3% of NDC followers.
Furthermore, 38% of non-voters are floating voters, and 39% are those who did not disclose their party identification, posing a serious threat to the NPP.

Mahama leads Bawumia by 18 points among those who do not reveal their party affiliations and by a significant 31 points among floating voters (54% to 23%).
Mahama has remarkably overtaken Bawumia among first-time voters, securing a 46% to 38% lead over the latter. This represents a notable change from the July 2024 poll in which the two candidates were tied.
On the other hand, Bawumia’s popularity among Muslim voters—a critical constituency for his campaign—has decreased, falling short of 4% since July.

According to the study, 70% of people who backed President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 still support Bawumia, but 19% have switched their support to Mahama.

Important areas such as Greater Accra and Central have seen a shift in the 2020 NPP voter base, with 20% and 37% of them now supporting Mahama. Regionally, Bawumia is in charge in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, whereas Mahama is currently in the lead in 12 areas, including Bono.

Bawumia’s position is becoming more difficult due to the rise of independent candidates Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten, particularly in the Ashanti and Eastern regions.

Bawumia presently has 66% of the vote in the Ashanti area, where the NPP seeks 85% support. Mahama has 22% of the vote, while Bediako and Kyeremanten receive 7% and 4% of the vote, respectively.

The ruling party may have difficulties as it prepares for the elections due to this dispersion of support.
The study also highlights the major factors that influence voter attitude, with the economy, employment, and education ranking first. The economy was cited as the main concern by a substantial 70% of respondents, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%).

Furthermore, 62% of voters think that the nation is going in the wrong direction. Those who favor the NDC (88%), independent voters (74%), and other party supporters (76%), are the most dissatisfied with this sentiment.
On the other hand, 64% of NPP backers believe that things are going well in the nation.