The opposition National Democratic Congress is expected to win the general elections in December, according to a firm statement from Fitch Solutions.
It has made this audacious forecast three times now. It did, however, note that in order to improve its chances of winning, the government would increase spending in the run-up to the general election in December 2024.
“To increase its prospects of winning the general election in December 2024, we anticipate that the government would increase spending in the run-up to the election. As stated in its most recent Country Report on Ghana, which was released on September 19, 2024, “We continue to believe that the opposition National Democratic Congress would win the election.
Indeed, in Q2 [quarter 2, 2024], the government tripled gasoline product subsidies and increased public sector wages by 31.0% nominally year over year. These actions are consistent with Ghana’s historical pattern of increased expenditure during election cycles. It stated that this will increase household purchasing power and encourage consumer spending during the second half of 2024.
It said, “In total, we project that private consumption will rise by 8.5% in 2024 and contribute 7.2pp to headline economic growth.”
Outlook-Related Risks
It went on to say that there are more negative risks to Ghana’s prospects for economic growth.
“Ahead of the December election, the opposition National Democratic Congress organized statewide demonstrations in September 2024, citing anomalies in the voter roll. Our fundamental belief that the vote will take place peacefully is still in line with Ghana’s recent democratic past. However, protracted protests or the start of widespread violence would disrupt business operations, lower consumer and business confidence, and ultimately result in slower economic growth than we currently anticipate.
It also stated that an intensification of the Middle East crisis, which would raise oil prices globally, would lead to a spike in inflation and cast doubt on Ghana’s prospects for domestic demand.